Osama bin Laden: What Next for Pakistan

Osama bin Laden was killed earlier this week, a result inevitably determined and irrevocably scheduled on 9/11, although there are many who insist he was on USA's radar well before the destruction of the iconic towers; he may well have been, but on that September morning, his fate was ensured.  That he was killed in Pakistan, in the heart of the country's military establishment, may surprise the naive but seems equally inevitable to someone who not only spent a few years growing up in General Zia's Islamabad but has followed that country closely in the past two decades.

I do not want to go over again over the numerous bits of rumour, political spin and misinformation about the operation that resulted bin Laden's death. Instead, I want to reflect on some of the country's past and perhaps try to glimpse a bit of its immediate future. And for that I go back to a blistering hot summer day in 1980 when we arrived in that country.

For a family used to the rough living of forward camps in India's north-east (one of our homes was a bamboo hut with dirt floors), Islamabad seemed gleamingly modern: wide avenues that seemed to echo Lutyen's Delhi with more than a dash of scenes from American movies.  Rawalpindi and Lahore, however, were similar to crowded, untidy towns from our own side of the border, except that people were either exaggeratedly friendly (something that discomfited me) or erupted into mysterious aggression.  Peshawar was chaotic but friendly and once past the Jamrud Fort - where national government writ did not apply - we felt as safe amongst the Pathan warlords as we would in Indian territory.

Strangely, for a country with two of its neighbours engaged in bloody wars (Afghanistan and Iran) through out the 1980s, with seemingly unending train of refugees pouring into its own impoverished villages and towns, Pakistan seemed single-mindedly focussed on one issue: India. 

It took a long time for me to understand that India posed an existential threat to Pakistan in a way that war on its other borders could not: cleaved from India, the country desperately needed a national  identity that would not only distinguish it clearly from its eastern neighbour but also confirm a sense of self that would not need no reference to India. Unlike most Indians who feel that our shared features are grounds for friendly relations, I learned - thanks to years in Pakistani schools - that those very commonalities threaten the ongoing national project of Pakistani self-hood. 

To ensure this distinct identity, General Zia had, not long before, embarked on a national "Islamisation" programme. The extent and impact of this decades-long national programme is perhaps little understood: with ample Saudi financial support, the programme was meant to steadily construct an "Islamic" national identity, replacing the various streams of the faith and ancient local cultural traditions with the austere Wahhabi version imported from the Gulf.  Over time (and as 30 years of the programme bear fruit now), army and other government institutions were to be populated by these new "true Muslims," with recruitment, promotions, assignments all geared to ensure the gradual cleansing of the old guard who were seen as weak and non-Islamic (and under the new definition, therefore, un-Pakistani enough). 

At the same time, a vast change was brought to the educational curriculum: Pakistan's history was rewritten to highlight its Islamic identity and cleanse it of its Hindu, Buddhist, Jain past. We found a stark example of this at the Takshashila monastery ruins where the government guide insisted that the monks' living quarters were prison cells and the abbotts' rooms - slightly larger than the rest - were the torture and execution chambers. You see, there was no room for Buddhist glory in Zia's newly Islamising nation! None of us who had heard that guide on that day in 1983 were surprised by the destruction of the Bamiyan Buddhas in 2001: Zia's tree was bearing fruit!

Even Urdu - that wondrously hybrid linguistic miracle - suffered the same fate as it was steadily "purified" and words from Sanskrit, Prakrit and other Indic languages were replaced with Arab ones. 

What does all this have to do with Osama bin Laden, you may well ask? Well, this was also the time when Pakistan's Directorate of Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) was increasingly empowered (it had existed since 1948) and with the long-running campaign in Afghanistan - with US support in terms of training and weaponry and Saudi funds - grew in stature. Over time, it also became increasingly strident and a powerful cell within the army, and began to establish itself as a separate centre of power, with vast funds and resources but also able to call on an unofficial cadre of ideologically driven footsoldiers from the jihadist groups it supported, funded, trained and ran. By early 1990s, the ISI was often acting against the wishes and without the knowledge of the main army brass.  At this time, army and civilian governments were often all too happy to claim ISI's successes as their own, even as some expressed reservations in private (Benazir Bhutto was one of these). It is also important to note that over time and given its involvement in Afghanistan, the ISI also became far more imbued with fundamentalist ideology than many other parts of the Pakistan state and populace. 

However, to believe that the army is some how "liberal" is a mistake: three decades of Zia's "Islamisation" have ensured that it also fully partakes of the fundamentalist ideology. There is, however, a basic difference: Pakistan's army also has impressive economic assets and political power; it also is cognizant of the need for working with the rest of the government - even the much-derided politicians - and is circumspect about maintaining its status quo.  This leads the Pakistan army to often make what may seem like "compromises" in the national and international arena, although it must be noted that the institution has been very effective in ensuring that civilians and politicians take the fall for these necessary "compromises." One notable exception to this has been Gen. Musharraf who was eased out with a gentleness that Pakistan's army can only extend to  its own.

With this backdrop in mind, it is worth looking back at the past ten years (although the Kargil fiasco is also a factor in these internal power games). Pakistan's army and civilian government have attempted to walk a very fine line: unable to check the ISI-jihadi bloc, it has attempted to maintain a facade of "alliance" with US and others in the post-9/11 "war on terror," while trying to curtail some of ISI's influence. Unfortunately, ISI (and some parts of the larger army) have shown little interest in the longer term, economic and political interests of the nation. Instead, still convinced that it - not geopolitics - defeated Soviet Union with the fabled "death-of-a-thousand-cuts," it believes it can continue unchecked: the various attacks in India, including the 2008 Mumbai ones as well as its continued machinations in Afghanistan and the country's own tribal areas, are an evidence of its convictions.

Sadly, Pakistan's policies of the past thirty years are ripping it apart today: army with its collaborating wing of civilian polity is increasingly facing a network of terrorist groups backed, funded, armed and often manned by direct and indirect members of the ISI.  This is one answer to the mystery of who the US informed (and didn't inform) and who all in Pakistan government establishment knew about bin Laden's whereabouts!  Given the situation in the country, it is likely that various parts of Pakistan's army, ISI and other goverment agencies knew different bits of information and received varying briefings. Unfortunately for Pakistan (also ultimately for bin Laden), although fortunately for the US, these various Pakistani factions are acting against each other!  

So what happens now? Terror attack warnings have already gone out across the world. There is little doubt that various groups ideologically linked to Al-Qaida will attempt to avenge his death. There is also the issue of succession to bin Laden, although he was - at time of his death - more of a symbol than a major leader of any jihadist terrorist group. However, the top spot is now available to whole array of successors and succession wars will mean that each heir-apparent will attempt to stake his claim by staging competitively spectacular attacks. 

Another aspect to consider is the timing of the operation: by most reliable accounts suggest that US had suspicions about bin Laden's location at least as far back as 2008. It also appears that they knew "almost certainly" by middle 2010 that he was at Abbottabad. It is worth keeping in mind that operations of this kind require a few months of planning, which means they would only ready by the first quarter of 2011. 

However, killing bin Laden would have yielded greater electoral benefit for Barack Obama later in the year, once the campaign had begun to heat up.  So why now? Did US fear that bin Laden would be tipped off by one side in Pakistan's internecine rivalry and escape again? But then given that last three presidents have failed, that would hardly have been a major disaster. Or did the US feel it was being rendered irrelevant to the Middle East by the events of the Arab Spring and killing bin Laden would symbolically help them assert a military, if not political, power that most of the world believes is waning? No doubt there shall be more answers in the next few weeks as more information emerges. 

However, here are my some of my predictions:  in the next eighteen months, we shall see increased violence within Pakistan as the army-civilian establishment goes up against the ISI-jihadi alliance.  The former will be attempting to salvage what is possible of the national cause while the latter will not only be driven by revenge but an increasing threat to their very survival (The Arab Spring also impacts financing and support of Islamist groups by regimes who are increasingly fighting fires on their own home-fronts).  I do not envy the average Pakistani citizen who will be caught in the cross-fire of this "informal" warfare. 

Mumbai Aftermath: An Idea for Celebrating Eid

Since the terrorist began their rampage in Mumbai a week ago, I have grown sick of reading about how India stands at the verge of Hindu-Muslim "sectarian" or "religious" violence. Every British and American editorial attempts to explain why US and EU cannot act again Pakistan by linking the hypothetical ramifications of all action to a Hindu-Muslim war in India. It is time - I believe - to stop the hypocrisy and to really consider Indian in a fair, just and equitable fashion: and yes that means both Indian Hindus and Muslims. However, just this once, I would like to speak of Indian Muslims, partly because of circumstances but mostly because we are running up to Eid-ul-Azha or Bakrid next week.

For all of my life, I have watched politicians of all persuasions feed the victim discourse in the country. The secularlists will admit no fault on part of the Indian Muslims, even while there was ethnic cleansing in J&K and Mumbai became the earliest testing ground for jihadi violence. Meanwhile, the right wingers demand proof - again and again, and always insufficient - of loyalty to the nation from Indian Muslims. And over all of it looms the grim shadow of Partition, the one event that seems to be the monkey on our backs: Indian Muslims either live on apparently victimised minority margins or are viewed with suspicion for their apparently divided loyalty. Such has been the political discourse of my life time.

Yet in the aftermath of the Mumbai attacks, for the first time in my life, that discourse appears to be changing. The impetus comes not from the politicians but from the most conservative parts of the Indian Muslim community. There may be any number of motivations for it, but for the first time, I don't feel I am fighting alone - or for a lost cause - when I speak up against Islamophobia in Europe and USA, and on behalf of Muslim citizens of India.

A couple of days ago, the leaders of the Mumbai's Muslim community refused to bury the Mumbai killers on religious grounds. This - despite its PR value - is a significant theological shift as it puts into practice the oft repeated platitude of Islam being a religion of peace. The only reason for refusing the bodies has been the terrorist's violent and vile actions. Finally, the religious leaders of the Islamic community in India are walking the walk, as well as talking the talk.

And then the most stunning announcement that I can remember came today: The All India Organisations of Imams of Mosques (AIOIMs)has appealed that next week's Bakrid be celebrated in a sober way. That Muslims wear black ribbons and especially denounced the killing of Jews during the Mumbai attacks. The organisation has asked all muftis and imams to denounce the Mumbai killings - and especially the killing of the Jews at the Nariman house - during the Friday prayers.

It is supremely significant that both these steps come in the run-up to Bakrid. The festival marks the Biblical episode when God asked Abraham to sacrifice what he loved most. Abraham took his son, aiming to kill him as a sacrifice, but at the last moment a miracle saved Isaac and replaced him with a goat. Muslims celebrate that same miracle at Bakrid every year.

And this year - despite the sorrow and horror of Mumbai - marks a tremendous shift. The two decisions by Muslim religious bodies are unprecedented but welcome.

We in India have always cherished our Muslim heroes: Shahid Hameed, APJ Abdul Kalam, Mohammad Azharuddin, Shahrukh Khan. We have clung to these heroes when we run out of arguments for our secularist democracy. Yet there has always been a dark side: political leaders like Farukh Abdullah who presided over ethnic cleansing, and the obscurantists who took to streets at the time of the Shah Bano case, and the self-professed liberal secularists who have done as much damage to our social fabric as the Hindu fundamentalists. Through it all, the Muslim religious and political leadership has been lacking, and the community has been forced to turn to obscurantists, opportunists, ideologues and idiots for guidance.

This is why these two decisions by Islamic religious bodies are so important for us as a nation. For once, the religious, the most conservative parts of the Indian Muslim society have taken a clear stance: India over religion! India before Islam! India over history!

It is time to acknowledge, respect, appreciate that step. And to support it with all our strength.

Here is an idea: Bakrid commemorates a miracle based on sacrifice. In the Bible, God asks Abraham to sacrifice what is dearest to him. In response, Abraham takes up his son Isaac as sacrifice to the divinity. At the last moment, having tested Abraham's faith, God replaces Isaac with a lamb, acknowledging the spirit that drives Abraham's sacrifice.

Given AIOIM and the religious trusts stance on the Mumbai massacre, there has already been a sacrifice made by religious leaders of the Indian Muslim community. Theologically, they have chosen to challenge all the major contemporary orthodoxies by refusing burial to the terrorists. Make no mistake: this seemingly small decision pits Indian Muslims against all major theological schools of the Islamic world. How ironic that once again the Indian Muslims have been called to prove their devotion - this time to the nation-state rather to God - and once again the bulk of them are willing to repeat Abraham's sacrifice.

It is sentimental to talk of Abrahamic miracles in this day and age. But perhaps Mumbai has given us that opportunity and perhaps the need for such miracles. This year, let us honour that choice. How about if every Indian Muslim who celebrates Eid in a "sober way" puts a candle in their window on that day?

And what if the rest of India honours that choice of a "black" Eid, by lighting a similar candle in our windows, regardless of our religion.

After all, at the end of Abraham's sacrifice, there was unity and celebration. Perhaps this is the year, ALL Indians can commemorate the Abrahamic sacrifice, and be joined in the unity that results from such faith!

Mumbai Aftermath: Rats Play Even Before the Pyres Finish Burning

There are days when even the most law-abiding citizen feels the need for vigilante action. There are days one wishes that we could react with bullets rather than ballots. Today is one of those days, when I fervently wish there would be mobs lynching some of the political rats that are prancing about on the embers of the funeral pyres of the soldiers and victimes of Mumbai.

The reason for my anger is the overt lack of concern that our politicians are displaying:

1. Deputy CM of Maharashtra started it by stating that "in a big city there are a few small incidents."

2. The Maharashtra CM Vilarsao Deshmukh compounded it by visiting a wrecked Taj in company of his film star son and a film producer/director. And then in a sickening act of effrontery, he proceeded to harangue the media for questioning his (lack of) judgement.

3. And as if that were not enough, Kerala CM Achutanandan insulted Major Sandeep Unnikrishnan's bereaved family. In fact I am so disgusted that I refuse to repeat his sickening remarks in this blog.

And of course the above list does not even include a sneering Muqhtar Abbas Naqvi, an opportunist Narendra Modi, a vile Amar Singh and of course the usual jerk Laloo Prasad Yadav.

In a just world, these politicians would be tried and punished for sedition. Yet in the world as it stands today, they not only go unpunished but in fact continue speaking with no sensitivity, concern or intelligence.

In a just world, these seditious rats would be hanged by citizens right at the Gateway of India as a lesson for all others.

In disgust: Satyamev Jayate.

In Sorrow and in Hope

The carnage in Mumbai appears to have come to an end. I still hold my breath as its painful to wait for the news of those who may have died in the Taj. I am still too shaken, angry and upset to write anything coherently. Words fly around my head but never long enough to hold a full thought.

Yet a few thoughts on the past three days:

1. Sorrow at watching the Taj in flames. The building is not only a symbol of Mumbai but also of self-reliance, nationalism and growth for all of India. After all, it was built to negate British racial laws. It broke my heart to watch it burn - and so glad it was saved.

2. Anger at watching the carnage, at the knowledge that its once again our loony hate-filled neighbours who are obsessed with harming us.

3. Pride at our forces. I am always surprised at how gentle our army officials appear - one smiled this morning and said, "smiling is what you need to ensure morale."

4. Sorrow for those killed. Especially Gaj Singh, whose body was flown back to Dehradun. I feel pride in my hometown but sorrow too as it seems that convoys bearing our brave dead never seems to halt for long.

5. Fury at the Israeli officials who were quick to claim anti-Semitism because "their" victims were not prioritised; and even quicker to criticise the forces. You ever try living in a civil, democratic open society, a society that is NOT a police state? And ever manage a crisis that involved bringing out hundreds of hostages in multiple locations? All I can say is: Shut Up Already!!

6. Finally, hope. Regardless of what western media says about "sectarian" tensions in India, I take courage from the fact that Islamist fanatics could not find even two dozen people out of a population of 150 million Indian Muslims to behave like blood thirsty barbarians. That says good things about us.

Jai Hind!

How NOT to spin: Chinese government surpasses its own idiocy

So completely convinced are the idiots (read bureaucrats) in Beijing that the world can be manipulated by untruths that only need be uttered with authority that they have surpassed themselves.

After bussing in Chinese protesters to various capitals around the world for the Olympic Torture Relay, and assigning shoppers to "picket" Carrefour stores in China, they now have chanced upon the apparently fool-proof weapon of media spin: accuse the Tibetans of having links with the Al-Qaeda!

In fact the main propagandist of Beijing, Xinhua, has now revealed that the Dharamshala-based Tibetan Youth Congress (TYC) is the "armed spearhead of the 14th Dalai Lama group."

Not content with that nebulous accusation (guess they learned from Bush Jr and his playpen at Guantanamo), Xinhua insists that the TYC has become a terrorist organisation" and has "also sought mutual support from international terrorist organisations such as Al-Qaida and East Turkistan groups." The information is apparently attributed to Liu Hongji, expert at China Tibetology Research Centre!!

My first thought: Goebbels must be writhing in his grave at Mr. Hongji's incompetence. My second: what a bunch of idiots!

And finally: It appears true that the more oppressive and brutal a regime grows, the greater the farce it becomes. For now, I await the moment when the Beijing regime is brought down to the sound of Buddha's laughter....

The Tigress Gets an Outing...

Stories are weird beings. Sometimes they jump out, fully formed like Athena, from your head and take very little polishing. Or else, they seem to begin with a scrap of memory, or conversation, or just an image and feel like an interminable CPWD project. And those, like CPWD projects, even when they are complete, feel a bit spiky and ugly and a bit off. And then, sometimes, it seems that decades of memory, fantasy, speculation, experience and conviction, all come together to form a tight little knot. Something of the sort happened last year, when I wrote a tiny story about a woman suicide bomber.

Somewhere in the back of my mind were the horrific images from the assassination of Rajiv Gandhi - one reason Dhanu seemed like a good name for one of the characters. Then there were images from Mani Rathnam's Dil Se, all green and humid like memories of my childhood in the north east. And overlaid on the top of it all was the hegemonic discourse primarily from western media and governments that insists that suicide bombers are either deluded dupes, hate-filled fanatics or psychotic killers. No Hollywood or European director is going to a take a chance with a film like The Terrorist or Dil Se in the near future!

But more specifically there was a telephone conversation about the Aamir Khan-Kajol starrer, Fanaa! Some friends who had lived over two decades in the USA (and have returned since to India) called me up in distress and fury. How could a terrorist be shown to have a "love life," they asked. Wasn't this a mafia-run Bollywood pandering to the nefarious Middle East? Wasn't this threatening the Indian nation-state and indeed, all morality? Wasn't this sympathy for a mass-killer undermining the morale of our law enforcement officers and soldiers?

All their arguments were distilled from post-9/11 American media, with resounding echoes in the various European ones. In face of their passion, all my arguments sounded hollow, sentimentalist, pathetic even. I pointed to the ways the film echoed Mother India, that it was about taking a stand against "terrorism" even when it was at personal cost. That in India we walked a fine line that ensured that we didn't succumb to seeing any "other" as non-human. But to no avail! My friends remained angry and distressed. And I found myself wondering why they believed a "terrorist couldn't love anyone"!!

Perhaps it was that question that provided the final spark for the story. From nearly fifteen years of wondering and questioning why some people chose to kill by dying, a tiny narrative was born. It brought together every news report and book I had ever read about terrorism. And yet, strangely enough, it went back to those first images of Rajiv Gandhi's assassination with blood-soaked pinks and greens, of fragments of flowers in the midst of the charred horror. And to those initial identi-kit sketches of Dhanu in the newspapers.

Not surprisingly, the story as it was born, set itself in Sri Lanka. With its deep emerald woods. With rich silks and heavy perfumes. With a Black Tigress at its centre! And it distilled all that I had read and heard and watched for over fifteen years.

I have been saddened by some of the responses I have received for the story. It is not a justification of those who die to kill. It is not even a justification of those who kill. The story questions all of life that drives them to such a step. It is a step at understanding. Because as my grandmother always told me, "with understanding shall come the solutions."

The story, Tomorrow the Tigress Will Hunt, is out now in the new issue of The Drawbridge, along with a lot of other thought provoking writing.

I think its a sad story. And one that makes me angry. And its a story that needs to be told.